8/21/00:
Are You Ready for Some Football? Or, Dante's
Fearless NFL Predictions, AFC Style
Most folks
showed shock and surprise when ER featured
NHL picks in its final print edition, as
well as on this web site. It seems that
many people see us film and media geeks
as one-dimensional, obsessed losers who
can't see past the big or small screen.
Fortunately, yours truly grew up with a
movie-loving, tv-loving, sports-loving father
who taught me that there were no poor sporting
events, only poor sports.
NFL 1999-2000
was a freaky aberration as a couple teams
jumped from worst-place finishes the previous
year to become serious contenders. In fact,
I predicted that the Rams would be competing
against the Eagles in Week 17 for their
second or third win. I hardly thought they'd
be resting their starters (an Arena Bowl
QB?!) on the way to a playoff march that
culminated in Super Bowl glory. Who knew?
Luckily, I wasn't alone in my beliefs. Many
a highly-paid sportswriter picked the likes
of St. Louis and the Indianapolis Colts
at or near the bottom of their respective
divisions.
But now
we enter a new season that's seen its fair
share of off-season stories. Retirees included
Steve Young (about time) and Michael Ervin
(just in time to concentrate on hanging
out with serious drug offenders), while
Ray Lewis escaped a murder rap in time to
make camp and Reggie White hauled his ministering
ass OUT of retirement to join the Carolina
Panthers. And in the NFC East, the Cowboys
seem to have been bested at their own game
as the rival Redskins signed Deion Sanders
and Jeff George (not a bad backup QB), along
with Bruce Smith and some rookie named LaVar
Arington. Lookout Rams.
Anyway,
let's start in the AFC, a conference I care
much less about since the retirements of
Dan Marino and Jimmy Johnson. Danny authored
a slew of records in his career, but he
never had the weapons necessary to repeat
the glory of his early days. I don't expect
that same fate to befall Peyton Manning
and his Indianapolis Colts. With RB Edgerin
James and receiver Marvin Harrison, the
Colts look to be the class of the AFC East
again this season. Hell, I've loved Colts
coach Jim Mora since his days with the USFL's
Philadelphia Stars, and I always hoped he'd
come back to town and lead the Eagles to
the Promised Land. Unfortunately, Mora's
a lot smarter than even I gave him credit
for.
After the
Colts there's a significant drop-off in
talent in the East. The NY Jets should return
to the form of two seasons ago, even with
the departures of key elements like receiver
Keyshawn Johnson (now a Buccaneer), and
coaches Bill Parcells (upstairs) and Bill
Belicheck (up north). New head coach Al
Groh (that's Groh, not Gore) has the advantage
of getting back Vinny Testaverde, but the
honeymoon won't last long in New York if
they don't round into shape quickly. Still,
look for the Jets to be respectable and
in the hunt for a Wild Card slot at the
end of the season. Despite the Buffalo Bills'
most popular player (the diminutive Doug
Flutie) sidelined due to injury and the
promotion of QB Rob Johnson, yours truly
thinks the Bills could still sneak into
the playoffs as a Wild Card if people aren't
looking. Unfortunately, they also said goodbye
to Bruce Smith, Thurman Thomas and Andre
Reed. All guys that helped them to four
AFC championships in the early 1990s.
I figure
the East'll be a battle for the basement
between the underachieving New England Patriots
and the Marino-less Dolphins, two name teams
thrust into the unfortunate position of
rebuilding in an era of free agency. In
New England, Drew Bledsoe gets new coach
Bill Belicheck, but it won't make have much
effect after losing starters like Bruce
Armstrong and Ben Coates. Damon Huerd and
Dave Wandstet were handed the unfortunate
jobs of following two guys named Marino
and Johnson, but it's not like that combo
exactly set the NFL afire. (PREDICTIONS:
Indy: 11-5; Jets: 10-6; Buffalo: 9-7; New
England: 6-10; Miami: 3-13)
The AFC
Central looks like it'll be the most entertaining
division in the conference, maybe the whole
NFL. The Tennessee Titans, last year's Super
Bowl runners-up, are looking to return to
the big game, but with a different outcome.
Despite what anybody says about their miracle
victory in the playoffs last year, they're
the team to beat in a tough, tough division.
In fact, don't be surprised if three playoff
teams emerge from the Central, bruised but
battle-tested.
But back
to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Many thought
they were the best team in the AFC last
season, except that the three losses in
their 18 games all came at the hands of
the Titans. Jacksonville would like to think
that if they can solve the Titans they can
get to the Super Bowl, but it certainly
isn't going to be that simple. They've been
hit with a lot of injuries during the pre-season,
and their depth is already coming into question.
Which leaves the door wide open for the
Baltimore Ravens, another tough, talented
team looking to gain ground on the Titans.
The Ravens have an excellent defense (2nd
in the NFL last year) and seriously upgraded
their offense with the additions of Shannon
Sharpe and and RB Jamal Lewis. Plus, they
play in a great stadium and could sneak
away with the division if the Titans aren't
careful...or healthy.
In the
Steel City, the Pittsburgh Steelers might
finally bottom out, not unlike the Cowboys
(but more on them next week). Which might
finally result in the departure of popular
coach Bill Cowher. The reason? Kordell Stewart.
When I lived in the 'Burgh, "Slash"
Stewart was talked about as if the talented
receiver and passer were the second coming.
It was only a matter of time, local sports
pundits opined, before Stewart was shepherding
the "Stellers" back to the Bowl
and suiting up as a Pro Bowl starter. Ooops.
I haven't lived there for two years, but
I'd love to hear what dopey 'Burgh sportswriters
are saying now. The upshot? The Steelers
will be better than the Cincinnati Bengals
and (maybe) the Cleveland Browns, but I
know of five area flag football teams that
can make the same claim. (PREDICTIONS: Titans:
12-4; Ravens: 12-4; Jaguars: 10-6; Steelers:
4-12; Cleveland: 4-12; Bengals: 3-13)
In the
West there's only two colors that matter.
In other words, the silver and black ARE
BACK! People keep talking about the Kansas
City Chiefs, but I feel confident that these
new Chiefs will be the Chiefs of old. In
other words, win 10 games and then choke
horribly in the final weeks or an early
round of the playoffs. Remember gang, their
starting QB is Elvis Grbac, who has played
exactly one full season in his seven-year
career. The Oakland Raiders, on the other
hand, have cagey veterans in Rich Gannon
and wide receiver Tim Brown. I'm hoping
that coach John Gruden, who has a great
head for football, can guide the Raid-Ahs
get back to the playoffs for the first time
in six years.
The once-mighty
Denver Broncos still aren't up to speed,
even with the return of Terrell Davis. He
might eventually round into 1998 form, but
doesn't have John Elway at QB...it's still
the very green Brian Griese. Add in the
suspension of cornerback Dale Carter and
things don't look good. Still, playing in
Denver's lofty altitude is one of the league's
most significant home-field advantages,
so look for them to play .500 ball, all
things considered.
Mike Holmgren's
Seattle Seahawks looked to be on the verge
of something last season, but fell apart
as the year progressed. So much for winning
the division. In the off-season they lost
eight starters, and reports out of Seattle
are that Holmgren has soured on QB Jon Kitna
and Ricky "Troubled" Watters is
already bitching about his snaps. However
they'll still be a tad better than the depressing
San Diego Chargers, currently saddled with
Jim Harbaugh at QB. If memory serves me
correct, Harbaugh graduated from high school
with my 83-year-old father. (PREDICTIONS:
Raiders: 10-6; Kansas City: 10-6; Denver:
8-8; Seattle: 5-11; San Diego: 5-11)
DIVISION
WINNERS: Indianapolis, Tennessee, Oakland
WILD CARDS: Jets, Ravens, Jaguars
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS: Tennessee Titans
NEXT
WEEK: THE NFC and THE SUPER BOWL
That's
it for this week...stop back next week for
more plugs, rants, and shameless self-promotion.
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MD 21093-5531 or e-mail site URLs to editor@dantenet.com.
